Thailand’s Move Forward Party faces its legal fate

But scholars of Thailand say the veneer of legal process around the lèse-majesté proposals serves to mask the powerful internal levers of an undemocratic deep state invariably geared toward military and royalist interests.

“Political scientists call it a ‘competitive authoritarian’ system,” says ANU senior lecturer Dr Greg Raymond. “That is, you do have elections. There is genuine competition going on. But there are other mechanisms and institutions which generally ensure that the conservative establishment has a government to its liking.”

Move Forward and then-leader Pita never formed a coalition because they were blocked by the junta-appointed senate on the weight of numbers during a bicameral sitting of parliament weeks after the election.

Move Forward’s coalition partner Pheu Thai, the party of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, built a government instead under current prime minister Srettha Thavisin. Move Forward became the opposition.

“Thaksin is no longer regarded as the most serious adversary for the establishment,” Raymond says. “They’re now confronted by Move Forward, which promises a serious overhaul of all of Thailand’s fundamental institutions and to place them under a genuine rule of law.”

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In a further blow for democracy campaigners, Pita was suspended from parliament in July last year while the Constitutional Court considered a charge brought by the electoral commission that he had broken Thailand’s electoral rules by inheriting shares in a long-defunct media company. The case was thrown out in January.

Pita no longer leads Move Forward but remains deeply involved, telling media this week “democracy in Thailand is on the defence”. Opinion polls show he remains the Thai people’s preferred prime minister.

The 2020 dissolution of Future Forward and 10-year bans handed out to 16 of its leaders were seen by democracy advocates as direct meddling to weaken the opponents of Prayuth.

It is among several Thai political parties, starting with those backed by Thaksin, banished in the last two decades.

Protesters took to the streets, and are expected to rally again if Move Forward is dissolved on Wednesday. The scale of the protest would depend on the message from the Move Forward leadership and how grassroots organisations responded, according to University of Sydney associate professor Aim Sinpeng.

“But the real challenge for the anti-Move Forward forces would be what dissolution means for the next election,” she says.

“The Move Forward Party’s electoral victory benefited hugely from the Future Forward Party’s dissolution.

“As the MFP leaders like to say, Move Forward is an idea, an ideology, a struggle that cannot die even if the party dissolves.”

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