Many Americans, who are generally not satisfied with today’s economy, are focusing on the 2024 presidential election. The U.S. real estate industry and many other sectors are speculating on the implications of a potential second term for Donald Trump.
Many economists have considered what a second presidential term under Trump would mean. They’ve provided insight on everything from interest rates and tax cuts to housing prices and inflation.
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Marty Harlee, president and CEO of First Trust Financial, said he expects Trump to recommend to the Federal Reserve that it lower interest rates to keep the economy moving quickly.
“If former President Donald Trump should win the upcoming election, we would see another massive refinance boom along with a record number of home sales,” Harlee told GOBankingRates. “Lowering rates would move every other industry upward as well.”
Dennis Shirshikov, a professor of finance, economics, and accounting at the City University of New York, said that the Trump administration’s economic policies would likely focus on deregulation and tax cuts. These could stimulate economic growth and increase disposable income for many Americans. They could also benefit the housing market by increasing demand for homes.
“For instance, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, which Trump signed into law during his first term, led to an increase in after-tax income for many individuals and businesses, providing more capital for home purchases and investments in real estate,” Shirshikov said.
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With the rising cost of living and affordability among the major concerns many Americans have, housing and construction are being discussed more in the political arena, said Kateryna Odarchenko, a political strategist who also has a real estate license in Maryland.
“Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign includes several initiatives related to the housing market and construction sector, building on the policies from his previous term,” Odarchenko said.
During his first term, Trump worked on increasing homeownership rates, extending eviction moratoriums during the pandemic, and proposing the privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
“These efforts have implications for future homebuyers and the housing market at large,” Odarchenko said. “His administration also introduced tax reforms such as opportunity zones to stimulate investment in underdeveloped areas and capped property, income and sales tax deductions, affecting homeowners differently across the country.”
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If Trump is reelected, the real estate market could suffer. If rates come down, housing prices will increase, and the available supply will decline, Harlee said.
“In general, interest rates and the housing market always do well with Republicans in office,” Harlee said. “I think it’s safe to say the same would be true if Trump wins reelection.”
Shirshikov said that deregulation and tax cuts can stimulate economic activity. Still, they can also lead to inflation, which could cause the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to control it. That may make mortgages more expensive and reduce housing affordability.
“Trump’s tenure was marked by significant market volatility, partly due to his unconventional approach to policy and communication,” he said. “This unpredictability can create uncertainty in the housing market, causing potential buyers and investors to hesitate.”
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This article Trump Victory Could Ignite Massive Refinance Boom And Record Home Sales, Experts Say originally appeared on Benzinga.com
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