Chris Fallica
FOX Sports Wagering Expert
Are you intrigued by the matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII but unsure of which team to back?
Well, I’m here with three reasons why you should wager on Kansas City ahead of the showdown for the Vince Lombardi trophy on Feb. 11 in Las Vegas.
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Let’s dive in!
Check the Boxes
We’re gonna flash back to the NFL preview shows from the 1970s and 1980s where we’d see those side-by-side team comparisons. The team with more checks would be the squad picked by Jimmy “The Greek” Snyder or whoever the analyst was.
So let’s go through the checklist:
Coach/coordinator: Kansas City’s Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo versus Kyle Shanahan and Steve Wilks. Advantage: Chiefs.
Quarterback: Patrick Mahomes, future Hall of Famer, versus Brock Purdy.
While Purdy’s numbers may be better this year, I think it’s safe to say advantage goes to Mahomes.
Defense: Kansas City’s defense has allowed 7 points and 4.5 yards per play versus Miami, 4.7 YPP at Buffalo and 10 points at Baltimore and likely MVP Lamar Jackson. The Chiefs defense has been one of the best units all season and should get healthier in the two weeks leading up to the Super Bowl.
San Francisco allowed close to 5.5 yards per play versus Green Bay and was fortunate not to allow more than 21 points while Detroit scored on four of its five first-half drives and averaged 6.1 yards per play for the game.
Its secondary looks badly overmatched at times and Chase Young has been a liability in the playoffs. Advantage K.C.
Kicker: Harrison Butker, who has already kicked a game-winning field goal in the Super Bowl last season against the Philadelphia Eagles, or rookie Jake Moody? Advantage Chiefs.
The only check in favor of the 49ers would be offensive playmakers. Maybe that would be a double check but still not enough to overcome the other categories.
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Mahomes as an underdog
Are we really going to question Mahomes as an underdog again?
After winning in Buffalo and Baltimore as an underdog, Mahomes’ Chiefs are 11-1 against the spread (ATS) as an underdog and oh, by the way, won the Super Bowl last year as an underdog.
Sometimes “keep it simple, stupid” is the best advice and nothing is simpler than saying, “I’m taking Mahomes and the Chiefs as an underdog.”
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The Numbers Say So
OK, above, I outlined some football reasons and historical betting reasons to bet the Chiefs in the Super Bowl.
Now, I’m going to offer all the new Chiefs fans — also known as Swifties — a reason to bet their new favorite team.
Look, you’re gonna watch the game, so why not bet on it?
I’ve been a part of a group text with colleagues that have gone down this rabbit hole involving the number 13, which I’m told, is Taylor Swift’s favorite number. Well, the number 13 is found quite a bit surrounding this game.
The Super Bowl is the 13th Chiefs game she will attend — assuming she makes the trip from Japan after one of her shows.
The Chiefs’ opponents are the 49ers. Well, 4+9 = 13. This is Super Bowl LVIII (58). Of course, 5 + 8 = 13.
The game will be played on 2/11. Well, look at that — 2 + 11 = 13.
What more reason do you need to bet Travis Kelce and the Chiefs to win?
Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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