Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Setting a Super Bowl betting line is an exercise that requires bookmakers to balance full-season power ratings with recent developments.
Once the NFL’s season finale between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs was finalized, multiple Las Vegas sportsbooks opened San Francisco as a 2-point favorite with the total at O/U 47.5.
However, the spread would’ve been different six weeks ago.
One well-respected Vegas oddsmaker sends me his updated power ratings after every single weekend of the season. When San Francisco pummeled the Arizona Cardinals 45-29 on Dec. 17 to move to 11-3, his numbers had the Niners three points better than any other team on a neutral field.
That same weekend in Foxboro, Kansas City eventually put away the three-win New England Patriots after halftime to improve to 9-5. Star quarterback Patrick Mahomes hurled his 12th and 13th interceptions of the season.
The oddsmaker’s sheet read Niners 112, Chiefs 108 the next Monday.
Fast-forward to today and the gap is naturally tighter. Kansas City defeated the Dolphins, Bills and Ravens behind perennial playoff performers in Mahomes and Travis Kelce, not to mention the Chiefs’ best defense in years.
Meanwhile, San Francisco struggled out of the gate at home against Green Bay and Detroit and needed second-half rallies in both games to get here.
“There’s some recency bias with the number for sure,” Westgate SuperBook executive director John Murray told FOX Sports. “Kansas City just won at Buffalo and Baltimore in consecutive weekends, which is about as impressive a two-week stretch as any team could have.
“The 49ers should’ve lost to Green Bay, and they were pretty lucky to win against Detroit, too. This number probably would’ve been closer to San Francisco -3 near the end of the regular season.”
Has Brock Purdy proven that he is more than a game manager?
Some might be surprised to see San Francisco favored at all.
“The Niners are a better team,” Murray admitted. “There’s no doubt. But we said the same thing with the Ravens. The Chiefs have the edge at head coach, they have a huge edge at quarterback, and they always seem to make plays.
“San Francisco is also stronger than it was four years ago. Brock Purdy is better than Jimmy Garoppolo, and Christian McCaffrey wasn’t anchoring the backfield. [Nick] Bosa and Deebo [Samuel] were rookies that season.
“Every sharp guy is on the Niners, but the Chiefs always scare me. Everything always seems to go their way and they always make the clutch plays. They’re also extraordinarily well-coached with Reid and Steve Spagnuolo.
“And they have Pat Mahomes.”
Murray’s team behind the counter at the SuperBook took initial positions on Kansas City +2 and +1.5 after the NFC Championship to drop the line down to San Francisco -1. There’s been nothing but Niners support ever since.
“Our best NFL bettor all year laid 1.5 with us on Tuesday,” Murray reported. “Then a super-sharp group played the San Francisco moneyline. It’s moving back toward where it should’ve been all along.
“I’ll guess it closes San Francisco -2/2.5. If it touches 3, people would be rushing in to take Kansas City. I would be surprised if it got up to 3.
“But it’s moving back toward where it should be.”
Is Mahomes about to become the NFL’s new villain?
Murray expects more recreational bettors to bet the Chiefs, especially on the moneyline, at a plus price. The SuperBook is also ready for endless bets on Mahomes to win Super Bowl MVP and Kelce to score a touchdown.
You won’t find any Taylor Swift bets in Las Vegas, though.
“Nevada gaming doesn’t allow stuff like that,” Murray said. “But [SuperBook VP of risk management Jeff Sherman] is obsessed with Caitlin Clark. He’s putting up all these Caitlin Clark props because the Iowa women’s basketball team has a game on Super Bowl Sunday.
“All in all, we’ll have around 500 props for the game.”
Follow along with FOX Sports for the latest news on the NFL and other sports.
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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