Can Trevor Lawrence challenge Patrick Mahomes for NFL MVP? Odds, predictions

While he might be a bit of a long shot, Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence will enter the 2023 NFL season in the MVP conversation.

DraftKings Sportsbook currently has Lawrence at +1500 to win the league’s most prestigious individual award. Only Patrick Mahomes (+650), Joe Burrow (+750), Josh Allen (+850), Jalen Hurts (+1100) and Justin Herbert (+1200) currently have better odds. Lamar Jackson also sits at +1500, while Aaron Rodgers — winner of the award in 2011, 2014, 2020 and 2021 — is right behind Lawrence and Jackson at +1600.

A quarterback has won the award every year for the past decade, and in terms of the group above, every signal-caller has either won MVP before or played in a Super Bowl outside of Herbert and Lawrence.

Can Lawrence actually challenge for the title of MVP? 

Colin Cowherd believes this season will be one in which the Jags star proves his true value, calling him “the most valuable young player in the NFL” after The Athletic ranked him the 15th-best player in the league under 25. 

Cowherd also said that if Jacksonville didn’t land Lawrence, the NFL would strongly be considering moving the franchise overseas.

“He’s unflappable. … All these players, the best players under 25, the most valuable — literally, a save-the-franchise player — is Trevor Lawrence. I met this kid — he is completely unflappable. … After that Urban [Meyer] fiasco, if they didn’t have him, and they missed on the next quarterback or three … you think in five, six years, the NFL [wouldn’t] look around and say, ‘This thing ain’t working’?”

Winning will be key in Lawrence’s MVP pursuit. 

Each of the last 10 MVPs — once again, all quarterbacks — saw their team win at least 11 games. DraftKings Sportsbook currently has the Over/Under on the Jags’ win total at 9.5 and their odds to win exactly 11 games at +500.

FOX Sports betting analyst Geoff Schwartz recently said that he is confident the Jags can reach 11 wins due to Lawrence’s presumed ascension and Jacksonville’s schedule.

“Jacksonville won nine games last season in quarterback Trevor Lawrence’s first year being paired with Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson. We see quarterbacks (and their teams) often make a huge jump in Year 2. Yes, Lawrence is heading into his third NFL season, but we need to toss his rookie year because of his poor coaching situation. The Jaguars have an improved roster, adding players like Calvin Ridley and Anton Harrison to the offense will help Lawrence skyrocket into the conversation as a Tier 1 QB. 

” … The Jags face tough tests against Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson. Three of these games are at home, with the game against Buffalo being played in England. Duval also goes to New Orleans to face Derek Carr and a December game at Cleveland. Otherwise, the bulk of the schedule is full of Desmond Ridder, Bryce Young, Baker Mayfield and whoever is playing quarterback for the rest of the division opponents.”

Follow along on FOX Sports for the latest news on the Jaguars, Lawrence, the NFL and the rest of the sports world.