Donald Trump has a soft spot for military spectacles and autocrats.
He will be looking on with envy as Vladimir Putin parades both in Moscow today, with Chinese leader Xi Jinping flying in to join Victory Day events in Red Square.
European allies of Ukraine will be watching nervously, wary of anything that could upturn the delicate quest for peace.
President Trump‘s patience with peddling his much vaunted “peace deal” has been wearing thin and allies had feared Ukraine could be punished for it.
That would have been grotesquely unfair, of course. Ukraine has bent over backwards to accommodate Mr Trump’s one-sided diplomacy that has so far seemed to favour the aggressor in this obscene war.
True, the Trump proposal does not agree to Russian annexation of all the land already taken by force and stops short of ordering the complete demilitarisation of Ukraine, but otherwise the proposals are pretty much everything that Moscow has asked for.
The deal is being pushed by Steve Witkoff, Mr Trump’s golf partner turned chief negotiator, a man regarded by diplomats as out of his depth and lost in the rough when it comes to the arts of statecraft.
Like his president, Mr Witkoff has a history of doing business with Russian oligarchs, an apparently starry-eyed view of the Russian leader and has called Ukraine a “false country”.
Moment of truth approaching
Mr Witkoff and Mr Trump have so far given Mr Putin the benefit of the doubt, but a moment of truth is approaching. While Ukraine has agreed to a longer ceasefire in principle, Mr Putin will not.
Ukraine’s European allies feared that Mr Trump was about to despair of progress, blame Ukraine and take US military support with him.
Then came the minerals agreement between the US and Ukraine. The breakthrough gave the US president something to show for his efforts and assuaged his desire for some kind of deal. He seems to have moved on for now, at least, and approved the first $50m of arms sales to Ukraine.
Members of the Russian Air Force fly over Red Square during the rehearsal. Pic: AP
But these remain a tense few days ahead with plenty at stake.
Mr Putin’s self-declared three-day ceasefire raises the spectre paradoxically of escalation if either side breaks it.
The Russian lull is seen here in Kyiv as little more than a ploy.
If the Russian leader was serious about giving peace a chance, they say, he would have signed up to the permanent ceasefire being proposed by the Trump team.
Besides, Russia broke the last truce in Easter as soon as it had begun and used it to carry out surveillance and reinforcement operations says Kyiv. Why risk another pointless pause that is exploited by the invaders?
Escalation possible
If Russia plays the same games this time and Ukraine retaliates, there could be a significant escalation. Likewise, with any Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow during Victory Day.
Any major flare-up will not be looked on favourably by the US president if it upstages his first trip abroad this presidency, a three-day tour of the Middle East.
For now, his attention is not so much on the Ukraine conflict and he is no longer issuing threats to walk away and stop supporting the Ukrainians.
Russian servicemen march towards Red Square in the rehearsal. Pic: AP
Read more from Sky News:
Ukraine and Russia accuse each other of breaching ceasefire
Putin prepares to host dozens of world leaders for Victory Day parade
That will be a relief here in the Ukrainian capital. They would be unwise to do anything to reengage him, for now at least.
Their European allies, though, know American involvement in this war appears to be receding.
Can they fill the vacuum?
This week, they remember the sacrifices made to bring peace and security to their continent 80 years ago.
Can they find the political will and unity to do so again, even without America?
Astonishingly, given all we have been through, that is still an open question.
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