The Democratic Party candidate Lee, who has advocated using fiscal policy to support the economy and bringing to justice anyone involved in Yoon’s botched attempt to declare martial law in December, had 49 per cent public support against Kim of the People Power Party with 35 per cent, the Gallup Korea poll showed.
Kim has eroded what was a more than 20 percentage point gap with Lee at the start of the campaign on May 12, but has failed to convince another conservative candidate. New Reform Party’s Lee Jun-seok, to drop out and back him to improve his chances.
Yoon was ousted on Apr 4 by the Constitutional Court after he was impeached and is on trial on insurrection charges, accused of trying to arrest Lee and others who repeatedly clashed with him while in office.
Third-party candidate Lee Jun-seok had 11 per cent, according to the poll, which was one of the last major surveys to be published before a week-long blackout period that begins on Wednesday, when new polls are banned from publication by law.
Asia’s fourth-largest economy contracted in the first quarter as exports and consumption stalled, amid fears over the impact of Washington’s aggressive tariffs and political turmoil at home.
South Korea has been in trade talks with the US and is seeking a waiver from the tariffs President Donald Trump announced as his administration pressures Seoul to resolve a large trade imbalance between the partners.
Kim, who was a hardline labour minister under Yoon, has tried to court centrist voters, pledging business-friendly policies including deregulation and investment incentives and a tough stance against North Korea.
The conservative candidate Kim has also sought to widen his support base by uniting forces with the main third-party candidate Lee Jun-seok in a move that could make the race a virtual tie, but his overtures have been rebuffed so far.
In a sign of divisions on the liberal side, however, former prime minister Lee Nak-yon, who represents a minority faction in the Democratic Party, announced his support for Kim on Tuesday, saying Lee’s tendency to abuse majority power must be checked.
Still, Lee was likely to maintain a comfortable lead in the absence of a major unexpected turn that could shake up the race, said Choi Jin, director of the Seoul-based Presidential Leadership Institute.
“It seems almost impossible at this point that (Lee) will make a fatal mistake or (Kim) will pull off something that will touch the heart of the whole country,” Choi said.
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