Key takeaways:
Bitcoin’s 28% rebound from $75,000 faces resistance at $95,000, risking a bull trap.
Strong spot price momentum and ETF inflows support a potential $100,000 push.
Bull flag pattern suggests a $108,300 target if BTC breaks the $95,000 resistance.
Bitcoin (BTC) price has rebounded by 28% from its five-month low below $75,000 reached on April 9. However, its failure to break above the $95,000 resistance level decisively has sparked concerns that the latest recovery may trap bulls.
Bitcoin ETF flows provide a “more solid foundation”
But another big crash may be averted as BTC price momentum is backed by elevated spot Bitcoin ETF inflows in recent days.
This provides Bitcoin a “more solid foundation” to surge forward, according to market intelligence firm Glassnode.
As Bitcoin edged above $95,000, its 14-day price momentum indicator rose sharply from 58.7 to 82.1, as shown in the chart below.
“This breakout pushed the momentum above the statistical high band, a rare occurrence that historically signals strong bullish momentum,” Glassnode said in its latest Weekly Market Pulse report.
This indicator last crossed the statistical high band in November 2024, preceding a 61% rally in Bitcoin’s price to new all-time highs.
Glassnode, however, warns that such high momentum also increases the likelihood of short-term cooling periods, explaining BTC’s current choppy price action.
The onchain data provider added:
“Sustained strength will require spot volume and demand to remain positive.”
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) metric, which tracks the difference between taker buyers and sellers, remains close to the statistical high band despite a modest pullback over the last few days.
The high CVD metric suggests that the buy pressure is “still relatively strong,” Glassnode said, adding:
“This persistent positive aggression supports the bullish momentum seen in spot markets, although the slight softening hints that some profit-taking activity may be emerging as the price extends into higher ranges.”
Bullish signs are also emerging with the Hot supply rising higher and profitability metrics such as supply in profit (currently at 86%) expanding significantly. This signals a change in market sentiment favoring the upside, reducing the possibility of a major crash.
Bitcoin bull flag hints at $108,000
Bitcoin technicals show it remains within a bull flag pattern, which puts it in a good position to break out if key support levels hold.
The flagpole pattern developed after price climbed from $84,000 to a seven-week high of $95,857 between March 3 and April 25.
Related: Bitcoin price always rallies at least 50% after these two patterns emerge
Now BTC is consolidating within a descending parallel channel, testing overhead resistance levels for the past few days, including the upper boundary of the flag at $95,000.
A breach of this level could trigger another upswing. The bull flag’s target, derived from the height of the previous ascent, is approximately $108,300, representing a 14% increase from the current price.
Popular analyst alphaBTC said that Bitcoin was “getting ready for its big move,” setting a target of $100,000 and beyond.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
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