Israeli generals in no doubt about next step against Hezbollah

The division played a key role in Gaza, spearheading the army’s operations in the southern city of Khan Younis, a Hamas stronghold. The offensive inflicted heavy losses on Hamas fighters and tunnels, but also wreaked massive damage, sent thousands of Palestinians fleeing and resulted in scores of civilian deaths. Israel says Hamas endangers civilians by hiding in residential areas.

The military also said it staged a series of drills this week along the border.

“The mission is clear,” said Major General Ori Gordin, who heads Israel’s Northern Command. “We are determined to change the security reality as soon as possible.”

A ‘new phase’ of war

The military movements have been accompanied by heightened rhetoric from Israel’s leaders, who say their patience is running thin.

Defence Minister Yoav Gallant has now declared the start of a “new phase” of the war as Israel turns its focus towards Hezbollah. “The centre of gravity is shifting to the north by diverting resources and forces,” he said.

He spoke a day after Israel’s cabinet made the return of displaced residents to their homes in northern Israel a formal goal of the war. The move was largely symbolic – Israeli leaders have long pledged to bring those residents home. But elevating the significance of the aim signalled a tougher stance.

After meeting with top security officials, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared: “We will return the residents of the north securely to their homes.”

Netanyahu delivered a similarly tough message to a top US envoy sent to the region this week to soothe tensions.

An official with knowledge of the encounter said the envoy, Amos Hochstein, told Netanyahu that intensifying the conflict with Hezbollah would not help return evacuated Israelis back home.

Netanyahu, according to a statement from his office, told Hochstein that residents cannot return without “a fundamental change in the security situation in the north”. The statement said that while Netanyahu “appreciates and respects” US support, Israel will “do what is necessary to safeguard its security.”

Is war inevitable?

Israeli media reported the government had not yet decided whether to launch a major offensive in Lebanon.

Much, it seems, will depend on Hezbollah’s response. The group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, was expected to deliver a major speech on Thursday.

But public sentiment in Israel seems to be supportive of tougher action against Hezbollah.

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A poll in late August by the Israeli Democracy Institute, a Jerusalem think tank, found that 67 per cent of Jewish respondents thought Israel should intensify its response to Hezbollah. That includes 46 per cent of Jewish respondents who believed Israel should launch a deep offensive striking Lebanese infrastructure, and 21 per cent who seek an intensified response that avoids striking Hezbollah infrastructure.

“There’s a lot of pressure from the society to go to war and win,” said Avivi, the retired general. “Unless Hezbollah tomorrow morning says, ‘OK, we got the message. We’re pulling out of south Lebanon,’ war is imminent.”

Such a war would almost certainly prove devastating to both sides.

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Already, more than 500 people have been killed in Lebanon by Israeli strikes since October 8, most of them fighters with Hezbollah and other armed groups but also more than 100 civilians. In northern Israel, at least 23 soldiers and 26 civilians have been killed by strikes from Lebanon.

Israel inflicted heavy damage on Lebanon during a month-long war against Hezbollah in 2006 that ended in a stalemate. Israeli leaders have threatened even tougher action this time around, vowing to repeat the scenes of destruction from Gaza in Lebanon.

But Hezbollah also has built up its capabilities since 2006. Hezbollah has an estimated 150,000 rockets and missiles, some believed to have guidance systems that could threaten sensitive targets in Israel. It has also developed an increasingly sophisticated fleet of drones.

Capable of striking all parts of Israel, Hezbollah could bring life in Israel to a standstill and send hundreds of thousands of Israelis fleeing.

AP