Zelensky just signed a ‘historic’ deal. However, the next 48 hours will be crucial for Ukraine

But now the worry is that the guest list is not long nor high-level enough. In the past few days before the conference, Swiss diplomats had been hoping to get the highest-ranking figures worldwide to come. About 90 countries have agreed to attend out of 160 invited. Europe’s most influential leaders will front up, while the United States will be represented by Vice President Kamala Harris.

It has been a tug-of-war with Russia, which was not invited to participate and has done its utmost to ensure other nations don’t. The Kremlin regards it as a success every time someone turns an invitation down.

China, which has become more closely aligned with Russia since the war started, has also said it won’t take part, given Moscow’s absence. Zelensky, in turn, has accused China of working with Russia to dissuade countries from attending.

Moscow has exerted a lot of energy on this, and the Swiss organisers have seen it as a sign that the stakes are high with the conference.

Zelensky told the French parliament last week that he hoped the summit would hasten a fair end to the conflict.

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“The inaugural peace summit could become a format that would bring closer a just end to this war,” Zelensky said. “I am grateful for all you are already doing and it is a lot. But for a fair peace, more must be done.”

He dismissed the notion there could be peace in Ukraine based on the current front lines, with Russia deep inside Ukrainian territory.

“Can this war end on the lines that exist now? No. Because there are no lines for evil: not 80 years ago, not now. And if someone tries to draw temporary lines, it will only give a pause before a new war.”

Hence, there are unlikely to be any formal resolutions on thornier issues such as reparations, war tribunals or the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine.

The expected communique will cover only three of the most uncontroversial points of the formula: food security; nuclear security; and the return of prisoners and children.

While Western diplomats have been steadfast in their support for Ukraine, privately they acknowledge that the longer the conflict lasts the more precarious the situation becomes. Yet, Russia’s gains on the battlefield are only part of those concerns.

What they equally fear is any escalation in a global campaign aimed at damaging Zelensky’s credibility. When Zelensky visited Congress in December, there were outlandish claims – driven by far-right social media accounts – of his plans to live the high life after the war.

Lauren Witzke, a far-right activist and 2020 Republican Senate nominee for Delaware, recirculated a claim that Zelensky had bought a $US20 million mansion in Vero Beach, Miami, as she called for the US to “CUT OFF UKRAINE” from funding.

A fact check showed that Zelensky does not appear in any public records of property owners in that county, but the post, which included photos of a property, racked up millions of views and was recirculated by other conservative accounts.

Zelensky’s wife, Olena Zelenska, has also been the subject of the rumour mill and was falsely accused of using a diplomatic trip to France to go on a $US40,000 shopping spree in Paris in December 2022. In October 2023, a claim went viral that she had spent $US1.1 million at the Cartier store in New York while on diplomatic business.

The claims play into deeper Republican criticisms of corruption and the waste of US aid in many other countries around the world. Western diplomats have reportedly told Zelensky he must do everything in his power to stay above the corruption claims that long hung over Ukrainian politics.

At home, trust among Ukrainians in Zelensky has been slowly decreasing since May 2022. When he came to power in 2019 after a landslide election victory with 73 per cent of the vote, 80 per cent of Ukrainians trusted him. That number dropped to 37 per cent by February 2022.

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The level of trust rose again when Russia’s full-scale invasion started, skyrocketing to 90 per cent.
Now, according to a survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology published on June 7, about 59 per cent of the respondents trust Zelensky, in contrast to 36 per cent who do not. Unsuccessful personnel policies, as well as unsuccessful steps in fighting corruption or opposing Russian aggression, were among the top reasons for the criticism of Zelensky.

Zelensky retains legitimacy in the eyes of Ukrainian society, and most Ukrainians continue to trust him. Nearly 70-80 per cent of the respondents are against holding elections now, another attack line that Russian-led social media channels have prosecuted against him.

But Zelensky’s political opponents are starting to turn the screws. In the past week, he faced claims from senior government, military, law enforcement and diplomatic sources at his growing dependence on Andriy Yermak, his chief of staff, who has been ­accused of amassing personal power and usurping democratic processes.

In recent days, he was also rocked by the resignation of a top official, Mustafa Nayyem, who was overseeing wartime reconstruction and defence fortifications. Nayyem claimed his agency was being systematically undermined by the government.

But Anton Hrushetskyi, the head of Kyiv’s International Institute of Sociology, says the priority of the people is to win the war and then have an election.

“Therefore, they don’t question the legitimacy of Zelensky,” he says. “We see these narratives from Russia and how it tries to impose on Western minds the thought that Ukraine is not a democracy.”

After the peace summit, Western diplomats hope they can rope in the Saudis, the Turks or even the Vatican as potential mediators between Kyiv and the Kremlin. All have been invited to this week’s G7 summit.

“Together, the world can definitely restore justice and a just peace,” Zelensky said after announcing the pact with Biden. “We are doing everything for this.”