If we’ve learned anything over the years, it’s that anything can happen at the Grammys. And I don’t mean a celebrity face slap or a wince-inducing tankathon for a monologue (cut poor Jo Koy some slack, eh?).
The Recording Academy, the body of music industry voters who select the winners, is notoriously unpredictable. For better and worse, the academy doesn’t always go with the seemingly obvious choices that reflect a critical or cultural consensus. Attempts to forecast which way the winds will blow a voting body, which to its credit, has made efforts to get younger and more diverse in recent years, can be a useless exercise of armchair psychoanalysis.
But it’s still fun to try.
The 66th Grammy Awards return to Los Angeles’ Crypto.com Arena this Sunday (5 p.m., CBS) with host Trevor Noah. Ahead of the red-carpeted affair, here’s a breakdown of the four marquee awards with my thoughts and predictions, as well as a roundup of local nominees.
Album of the year
Jon Batiste “World Music Radio.” Boygenius “The Record.” Miley Cyrus “Endless Summer Vacation.” Lana Del Rey “Did You Know That There’s a Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd.” Janelle Monáe “The Age of Pleasure.” Olivia Rodrigo “GUTS.” Taylor Swift “Midnights.” SZA “SOS.”
2023 was unquestionably the year of Taylor Swift. Will her pop culture dominance carry the Kansas City Chiefs’ most famous fan to a sweep of the Grammys’ three biggest categories? The pop superstar’s three album of the year wins are tied with Frank Sinatra, Stevie Wonder and Paul Simon for the most ever. “Midnights,” Swift’s late-night synth-pop effort, could easily break the tie. Yet for better or worse, Grammy voters aren’t beholden to the zeitgeist; see jazz fusionist Jon Batiste’s upset win two years ago — a feat the likable New Orleans pianist could conceivably repeat.
Beyond Batiste, Swift faces tougher competition than when she last won the Grammys’ most prestigious award with her stripped-down (by Swiftian standards) “Folklore” in 2021. Former Disney teen actor-turned-20-year-old pop star Olivia Rodrigo could steer some votes away from Swift with her sophomore album “GUTS,” laden with anthemic balladry and roaring pop-punk, creating an opening for folk-rock supergroup boygenius, who will duke it out with the Foo Fighters as favorites in the rock categories. Meanwhile, Seattle has a little skin in the game with Lana Del Rey’s album, which includes a song written by local star SYML (“Paris, Texas”) and an interlude sermon from celebrity pastor Judah Smith, who was sued last year over his Kirkland megachurch’s alleged tithing policy.
Ultimately, “Midnights” and SZA’s more sonically ambitious “SOS” stand out in the field. A critical and commercial smash, the sprawling “SOS” was a long-awaited statement project from the R&B/pop star that rejected genre boxes and defied expectations. While SZA is this year’s top nominee with nine nods, sadly, history hasn’t been kind to Black women in this category (just ask Beyoncé), as the Recording Academy has only bestowed the top album prize to three Black women in its 66-year history. Lauryn Hill was the last in 1999.
Who will win: Taylor Swift “Midnights”
Who should win: SZA “SOS”
Record of the year
Jon Batiste “Worship.” boygenius “Not Strong Enough.” Miley Cyrus “Flowers.” Billie Eilish “What Was I Made For?” Victoria Monét “On My Mama.” Olivia Rodrigo “Vampire.” Taylor Swift “Anti-Hero.” SZA “Kill Bill.”
To borrow a line from R&B breakout Victoria Monét’s “On My Mama,” no one was as “deep in [her] bag like a grandma with a peppermint” as SZA this past year. For all the acoustic numbers and pop-punk engine-revving that peppers her sophomore album, the lol-she’s-kidding-right? revenge murder fantasy “Kill Bill” is SZA doing what she does best — intimately mining one’s deepest, darkest thoughts around a messy romance sans filter. Let’s hope SZA subverting her way to the top reminds industry suits that an artist rooted in R&B is more than capable of standing tall in pop music’s center.
The same artist has won record of the year (an award for the artist and producers) and song of the year (which goes to the songwriters) 10 times in the last 20 years. SZA, Swift, Miley Cyrus and next-gen pop superstars Billie Eilish and Olivia Rodrigo could all justifiably swipe them both, but with so many heavyweight contenders in the field, it could be a split ticket. A veteran pop star turning over a new leaf, Cyrus and her down-the-middle hit “Flowers,” buttressed by its commercial success, could be the academy’s safety blanket.
Who will win: Miley Cyrus “Flowers”
Who should win: SZA “Kill Bill”
Song of the year
Jon Batiste “Butterfly.” Dua Lipa “Dance the Night.” Lana Del Rey “A&W.” Miley Cyrus “Flowers.” Billie Eilish “What Was I Made For?” Olivia Rodrigo “Vampire.” Taylor Swift “Anti-Hero.” SZA “Kill Bill.”
By some sort of cosmic wrinkle, Swift, arguably the greatest pop songwriter of her generation, has never won song of the year, a songwriter’s award. Cultural momentum is on Swift’s side, though serious Grammy bait abounds in the song and record of the year fields. Voters could easily fall for the neotraditional pop stylings of Eilish’s whispery piano ballad, one of two songs from the “Barbie” soundtrack in this field (alongside “Dance the Night”), or Cyrus’ smash “Flowers,” punctuating her adult-pop maturation album.
If the academy’s too buttoned up to go with a murderous slow jam inspired by a Quentin Tarantino flick (SZA’s “Kill Bill”) or a moody seven-minute epic by an alt-pop heroine overdo for such a mainstream accolade (“A&W” by Del Rey, who is yet to win a Grammy), perhaps they anoint Rodrigo with her first Big Three win for her sophisticated-beyond-her-years songcraft.
Who will win: Billie Eilish “What Was I Made For?”
Who should win: Lana Del Rey “A&W”
Best new artist
Coco Jones. Fred again.. Gracie Abrams. Ice Spice. Jelly Roll. Noah Kahan. Victoria Monét. The War and Treaty.
Even with the tragic omission of Peso Pluma — a breakout star quickly becoming the new face of regional Mexican music — this is a loaded field with electronic producer extraordinaire Fred again.., Taylor Swift’s big-voiced tourmate Gracie Abrams and fully arrived folk-pop star Noah Kahan, who headlines a virtually sold-out Gorge Amphitheatre this summer. Somewhat surprisingly, Victoria Monét — a former behind-the-scenes songwriter whose seven nominations are tied with boygenius’ Phoebe Bridgers and engineer Serban Ghenea for second most this year — is the only best new artist nominee up for another marquee all-genre award.
Face-tatted Nashville bellower Jelly Roll, a reformed “hick-hop” rapper who’s hit it big the last few years since pivoting to rock-tinged country music, took home new artist of the year honors at November’s CMT Awards, further cementing his stardom. But it’s a tough road for country acts in the Grammys’ top categories and his nod here is the lone Big Four nomination for a mainstream country artist this year.
Best known for her throbbing hit “Munch (Feelin’ U),” buzzy Bronx rapper Ice Spice should be the favorite, having emerged from NYC’s gritty drill scene poised for crossover stardom. Forget for a second her Swift collab on the “Karma” remix and the trail of viral content that’s followed her ascent: Ice Spice is the only artist on this list with a signature drink at Dunkin’ Donuts.
Who will win: Ice Spice
Who should win: Ice Spice or Noah Kahan
Washington watch
As usual, a number of Washingtonians are up for some of music’s top honors. There’ll be riots on the streets of Morton (or at least some disapproving headshakes) if country/Americana star Brandy Clark doesn’t net her first Grammy win after 17 career nominations. Clark is our leading local this year, her six nods placing her among this year’s most nominated artists. Her unvarnished self-titled album (produced by Brandi Carlile) is up for best Americana album, with two tracks “Buried” (best country song and best country solo performance) and “Dear Insecurity” — her duet with Carlile up for best American roots song and best Americana performance — each earning a pair of nominations.
None of those are a surprise for the perennial Grammy contender whenever she drops an album. But Clark earned another nomination outside her twangy turf, with “Shucked” — the Tony Award-winning musical she and longtime songwriting partner Shane McAnally penned the music for — nominated for best musical theater album.
Clark’s not the only artist with Washington ties vying for country awards. Zach Bryan has been an unstoppable force since being honorably discharged from the Navy, with which he was previously stationed in the Evergreen State. The folk-country stadium rocker’s duet with fellow Nashville outsider Kacey Musgraves “I Remember Everything” is up for best country duo/group performance and best country song, while his self-titled album — one of the year’s biggest of any genre — earned a best country album nod.
It was a between year for Carlile, but the hometown hero has a shot at two awards: best pop duo/group performance for lending vocals to Miley Cyrus’ “Thousand Miles” and best Americana performance for that duet with Clark, which sounded immaculate at the Gorge last summer. (Since Carlile does not have a writing credit on “Dear Insecurity,” she technically wouldn’t bring home any hardware if it wins best American roots song.)
After Clark’s six nominations, the Foo Fighters are the next leading locals, picking up three nods in the rock categories. Dave Grohl and the gang seem a safe bet to win best rock album with their punchy and poignant “But Here We Are,” their first album since the death of drummer Taylor Hawkins. The new tunes are likely to bowl over a T-Mobile Park crowd this summer (Aug. 18), but lead single “Rescued” faces a tougher road for best rock Song and best rock performance, where boygenius’ “Not Strong Enough” feels like the favorite.
As always with the Grammys, the bulk of the awards will be doled out during an untelevised daytime ceremony. It’s there that Seattle-rooted vocal quartet säje will compete for a best arrangement, instruments and vocals award against songs recorded by fellow powerhouse jazz vocalists Cécile McLorin Salvant and Samara Joy, last year’s best new artist winner.
Of all the local nominees, Eastsiders will especially be rooting for Bellevue violinist Ganesh Rajagopalan, who is up for best global music album for his work with Shakti. Led by jazz fusion guitar great John McLaughlin, “This Moment” was the revived ‘70s band’s first album in 46 years. Shakti faces tough competition in the catchall category, which includes albums by Afrobeats titans Burna Boy and Davido.
While it’s the Taylor Swifts of the world the average Grammy viewer tunes in for, many of the awards also recognize the behind-the-scenes talents who help artists sculpt their sounds. Seattle-raised producer and engineer (and four-time Grammy winner) Jesse Lewis has two nominations in the best Engineered Album, classical field: one for his hand in Shara Nova and A Far Cry’s “The Blue Hour” and the other for “Sanlikol: A Gentleman of Istanbul” by Mehmet Ali Sanlikol, George Lernis and A Far Cry.
#predictions #win #Grammy #Awards
