US President Joe Biden steps off Air Force One at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland, on 28 January 2024 as he returns from South Carolina.
- The killing of three US
troops and wounding of dozens more on Sunday by Iran-backed militants is
increasing political pressure on President Joe Biden to respond directly
against Iran. - Biden’s options could range
from targeting Iranian forces outside to inside Iran, or opting for a more
cautious retaliatory attack solely against the Iran-backed militants
responsible. - Experts caution that any
strikes against Iranian forces inside Iran could force Tehran to respond
forcefully, escalating the situation in a way that could drag the US into a
major Middle East war.
The
killing of three US troops and wounding of dozens more on Sunday by Iran-backed
militants is piling political pressure on President Joe Biden to deal a blow
directly against Iran, a move he’s been reluctant to do out of fear of igniting
a broader war.
Biden’s
response options could range anywhere from targeting Iranian forces outside to
even inside Iran, or opting for a more cautious retaliatory attack solely
against the Iran-backed militants responsible, experts say.
American
forces in the Middle East have been attacked more than 150 times by Iran-backed
forces in Iraq, Syria, Jordan and off the coast of Yemen since the Israel-Hamas
war erupted in October.
But
until Sunday’s attack on a remote outpost known as Tower 22 near Jordan’s
northeastern border with Syria, the strikes had not killed US troops nor
wounded so many. That allowed Biden the political space to mete out US
retaliation, inflicting costs on Iran-backed forces without risking a direct
war with Tehran.
READ | Biden vows US ‘shall respond’ after troops killed in Jordan
Biden
said the United States would respond, without giving any more details.
Republicans
accused Biden of letting American forces become sitting ducks, waiting for the
day when a drone or missile would evade base defences. They say that day came
on Sunday, when a single one-way attack drone struck near base barracks early
in the morning.
In
response, they say Biden must strike Iran.
Republican US Senator Tom Cotton said:
He left our troops as sitting ducks. The only answer to these attacks must be devastating military retaliation against Iran’s terrorist forces, both in Iran and across the Middle East.
The
Republican who leads the US military oversight committee in the House of
Representatives, Representative Mike Rogers, also called for action against
Tehran.
“It’s
long past time for President Biden to finally hold the terrorist Iranian regime
and their extremist proxies accountable for the attacks they’ve carried
out,” Rogers said.
Former
President Donald Trump, who hopes to face off against Biden in this year’s
presidential election, portrayed the attack as a “consequence of Joe
Biden’s weakness and surrender.”
The
Biden administration has said that it goes to great lengths to protect US
troops around the world.
One
Democrat openly voiced concern that Biden’s strategy of containing the
Israel-Hamas conflict to Gaza was failing.
“As
we see now, it is spiraling out of control. It’s beginning to emerge as a
regional war, and unfortunately the United States and our troops are in harms
way,” Democratic Representative Barbara Lee said, renewing calls for a
ceasefire in the Israel-Palestinian war.
Not so simple
Democratic
Representative Seth Moulton, who served four tours in Iraq as a Marine, urged
against Republican calls for war, saying “deterrence is hard; war is
worse.”
Moulton said:
To the chicken hawks calling for war with Iran, you’re playing into the enemy’s hands—and I’d like to see you send your sons and daughters to fight. We must have an effective, strategic response on our terms and our timeline.
Experts
caution that any strikes against Iranian forces inside Iran could force Tehran
to respond forcefully, escalating the situation in a way that could drag the
United States into a major Middle East war.
Jonathan
Lord, director of the Middle East security programme at the Center for a New
American Security, said striking directly inside Iran would raise questions for
Tehran about regime survival.
“When
you do things overtly you represent a major escalation for the Iranians,”
Lord said.
Charles
Lister of the Washington-based Middle East Institute said a likely response
would be to go after a significant target or high-value militant from
Iran-backed groups in Iraq or Syria.
“What
happened this morning, was on a totally different level than anything these
proxies have done in the past two to three months… (but) despite all of the
calls to do something in Iran, I don’t see this administration taking that
bait,” Lister said.
A
US defense official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said it was
unclear what the second and third order effects would be in going after Iran.
The official said:
Unless the US prepared for an all-out war, what does attacking Iran get us?
Still,
Lord and other experts acknowledge that Israel had hit Iranian targets in Syria
for years, without dissuading Iran, including four Iranian Revolutionary Guard
Corps officials in Damascus on 20 January.
The
United States has also struck Iranian-linked targets outside of Iran in recent
months. In November, the US military said it struck a facility used not only by
an Iran-backed group but also by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps.
But
Lister said the US had gone after Iranians outside of Iran in the past, like
the 2020 strike against top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani, and only yielded
a response during a limited period of time.
“So
to an extent, if you go hard enough and high enough, we have a track record of
showing that Iran can blink first,” Lister said.
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