By using this site, you agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms of Use.
Accept

News Junction

Notification Show More
Font ResizerAa
  • Home
  • World News
    World NewsShow More
    France bans smoking in nearly all outdoor public spaces – National
    France bans smoking in nearly all outdoor public spaces – National
    May 31, 2025
    Hegseth says U.S. will stand by Indo-Pacific allies against ‘imminent’ threat of China
    Hegseth says U.S. will stand by Indo-Pacific allies against ‘imminent’ threat of China
    May 31, 2025
    From TACO to FAFO, investors love parodies of Trump acronyms
    From TACO to FAFO, investors love parodies of Trump acronyms
    May 31, 2025
    Malaysian Trade Minister Tengku Zafrul Abdul Aziz quits UMNO to join ruling PKR
    Malaysian Trade Minister Tengku Zafrul Abdul Aziz quits UMNO to join ruling PKR
    May 30, 2025
    Defence Minister Richard Marles open to raising defence spending after meeting with US defence secretary
    Defence Minister Richard Marles open to raising defence spending after meeting with US defence secretary
    May 30, 2025
  • Business
    BusinessShow More
    Ukraine blows up bridges to consolidate its positions in Russia
    Ukraine blows up bridges to consolidate its positions in Russia
    August 18, 2024
    Commentary: AI phones from Google and Apple will erode trust in everything
    Commentary: AI phones from Google and Apple will erode trust in everything
    August 18, 2024
    The most famous Indian Dishes – Insights Success
    The most famous Indian Dishes – Insights Success
    August 18, 2024
    Life on the road as a female long rides cyclist
    Life on the road as a female long rides cyclist
    August 18, 2024
    UK inflation rises to 2.2%
    UK inflation rises to 2.2%
    August 18, 2024
  • Cryptocurrency
    CryptocurrencyShow More
    Ethereum network growth, bullish ETH futures support .4K
    Ethereum network growth, bullish ETH futures support $2.4K
    May 31, 2025
    FTX Bankruptcy Estate distributes  billion
    FTX Bankruptcy Estate distributes $5 billion
    May 31, 2025
    ETH, SOL ‘very rare’ staking ETFs may launch imminently — Analysts
    ETH, SOL ‘very rare’ staking ETFs may launch imminently — Analysts
    May 31, 2025
    Conor McGregor calls for Bitcoin strategy in Ireland
    Conor McGregor calls for Bitcoin strategy in Ireland
    May 31, 2025
    Livepeer (LPT) price surges 150% as it defies market downturn
    Livepeer (LPT) price surges 150% as it defies market downturn
    May 31, 2025
  • Technology
    TechnologyShow More
    How to Improve Your Spotify Recommendations
    How to Improve Your Spotify Recommendations
    August 18, 2024
    X says it’s closing operations in Brazil
    X says it’s closing operations in Brazil
    August 18, 2024
    Supermoon set to rise: Top tips for amateur photographers | Science & Tech News
    Supermoon set to rise: Top tips for amateur photographers | Science & Tech News
    August 18, 2024
    Scientists Want to See Videos of Your Cat for a New Study
    Scientists Want to See Videos of Your Cat for a New Study
    August 18, 2024
    OpenAI’s new voice mode let me talk with my phone, not to it
    OpenAI’s new voice mode let me talk with my phone, not to it
    August 18, 2024
  • Entertainment
  • Sports News
  • People
  • Trend
Reading: JPMorgan hikes EM default forecast as Country Garden drives China contagion fears
Share
Font ResizerAa

News Junction

  • World News
  • Business
  • Technology
  • Cryptocurrency
  • Trend
  • Entertainment
Search
  • Recent Headlines in Entertainment, World News, and Cryptocurrency – NewsJunction
  • World News
  • Business
  • Cryptocurrency
  • Technology
  • Entertainment
  • Sports News
  • People
  • Trend
Have an existing account? Sign In
Follow US
News Junction > Blog > World News > JPMorgan hikes EM default forecast as Country Garden drives China contagion fears
JPMorgan hikes EM default forecast as Country Garden drives China contagion fears
World News

JPMorgan hikes EM default forecast as Country Garden drives China contagion fears

Published August 16, 2023
Share
4 Min Read
SHARE

Signage at a residential project developed by Country Garden Holdings Co. in Baoding, Hebei province, China, on Tuesday, Aug. 1, 2023.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

JPMorgan raised its global emerging markets corporate high-yield default forecast, largely due to rising contagion fears in China’s property sector from a possible Country Garden default.

The U.S.-based investment bank raised its 2023 global forecast to 9.7% from 6% in a note dated Aug. 15. It also raised its Asia high-yield default rate forecast to 10% from 4.1% — that figure drops to just 1%, if China property is excluded.

JPMorgan expects China property to account for nearly 40% of all default volumes in 2023, followed by 35% from Russian corporates and 12% from Brazilian issuers.

The magnitude of the increase in JPMorgan’s default risk assessment underscores fears that a Country Garden debt default will have a far broader ripple effect on the Chinese property sector and the broader economy.

Country Garden has a far bigger and broader portfolio of developments than China Evergrande Group, which fell into default in 2021 and announced an offshore debt restructuring program in March.

China: Analyst discusses Country Garden's exposure to upper and lower tier cities

Country Garden, which used to be one of China’s largest developers, has until early September to make coupon payments it missed Aug. 7 on two dollar notes. Last week, it also suspended trading in 11 domestic bonds and issued a warning that it expects to post a half-year annualized loss of up to 55 billion yuan ($7.5 billion).

In the same note, JPMorgan said a Country Garden default could add $9.9 billion to the year-to-date global emerging markets high-yield corporate default tally, taking the total default volume for the Chinese property sector to $17 billion to date in 2023.

JPMorgan estimates a Country Garden default could also lead to $8 billion worth of defaults among remaining smaller Chinese property developers, and another $2 billion for “some liability management exercise” from a spillover to other Chinese high-yield sectors.

Over $100 billion of China property bonded debt has defaulted over the past two and a half years, according to JPMorgan. Prior to Country Garden, China’s property sector already chalked up $109 billion in defaults since the beginning of 2021, which is 94% of total defaults in Asia during that period.

JPMorgan also raised its default rate forecast for Latin America to 7.1% from 6.6% after Brazil’s Odebrecht Engenharia e Construcao appears to be embarking another round of debt restructuring that could affect $1.9 billion in dollar-denominated bonds.

The bank raised its default forecast for emerging Europe to 23.4% from 15.7%, to reflect the inclusion of Russian corporate bond defaults, which were mostly “technical” since sanctions from Russia’s war in Ukraine prevented firms getting bond payments to international investors.

Read more about China from CNBC Pro

#JPMorgan #hikes #default #forecast #Country #Garden #drives #China #contagion #fears

TAGGED:Asia Economybusiness newsChinaChina Evergrande GroupcontagionCorporate bondscountryCountry Garden Holdings Co LtddefaultdrivesEmerging marketsfearsforecastGardenhikesJPMorganreal estate
Share This Article
Facebook Twitter Pinterest Whatsapp Whatsapp LinkedIn Email Copy Link Print
Share
What do you think?
Love0
Sad0
Happy0
Sleepy0
Angry0
Dead0
Wink0
Previous Article Grove Co. Traditions Aglow Fall Cleaning Collection Launch 2023 Grove Co. Traditions Aglow Fall Cleaning Collection Launch 2023
Next Article Inside Dick Van Dyke’s m retirement fun palace! Mary Poppins icon, 97, builds dream Malibu home featuring water slide into the pool, putting green and even a dance studio Inside Dick Van Dyke’s $8m retirement fun palace! Mary Poppins icon, 97, builds dream Malibu home featuring water slide into the pool, putting green and even a dance studio
- Advertisement -

Latest Post

Ethereum network growth, bullish ETH futures support .4K
Ethereum network growth, bullish ETH futures support $2.4K
Cryptocurrency
France bans smoking in nearly all outdoor public spaces – National
France bans smoking in nearly all outdoor public spaces – National
World News
FTX Bankruptcy Estate distributes  billion
FTX Bankruptcy Estate distributes $5 billion
Cryptocurrency
Hegseth says U.S. will stand by Indo-Pacific allies against ‘imminent’ threat of China
Hegseth says U.S. will stand by Indo-Pacific allies against ‘imminent’ threat of China
World News
ETH, SOL ‘very rare’ staking ETFs may launch imminently — Analysts
ETH, SOL ‘very rare’ staking ETFs may launch imminently — Analysts
Cryptocurrency
From TACO to FAFO, investors love parodies of Trump acronyms
From TACO to FAFO, investors love parodies of Trump acronyms
World News
- Advertisement -

You Might Also Like

Russia is committed to making ‘a real contribution’ on continent, Putin tells African leaders
World News

Russia is committed to making ‘a real contribution’ on continent, Putin tells African leaders

July 30, 2023
The world’s oldest person, Spain’s Maria Branyas, dies at 117 – National
World News

The world’s oldest person, Spain’s Maria Branyas, dies at 117 – National

August 21, 2024
1st lung cancer vaccine trials launch, powered by COVID mRNA technology – National
World News

1st lung cancer vaccine trials launch, powered by COVID mRNA technology – National

August 25, 2024
US troops killed in Jordan drone attack — RT World News
World News

US troops killed in Jordan drone attack — RT World News

January 29, 2024

About Us

NEWS JUNCTION (NewsJunction.xyz) Your trusted destination for global news. Stay informed with our timely and accurate reporting on diverse topics, including politics, technology, science, entertainment, sports, and more. Count on us for unbiased and reliable updates at your fingertips.

Quick Link

  • About
  • Disclaimer
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of Use
  • Contact

Top Categories

  • World News
  • Business
  • Technology
  • Entertainment
  • Cryptocurrency
  • Sports News
  • Trend
  • People

Subscribe

Subscribe to our newsletter to get our newest articles instantly!

    © 2023 News Junction.
    • Blog
    • Advertise
    • Contact
    Welcome Back!

    Sign in to your account

    Username or Email Address
    Password

    Lost your password?