SYDNEY : Australian job advertisements posted a small rise in July after an outsized decline in the previous month, data showed on Monday, but analysts say the lift could be a blip as rate hikes work to cool red-hot labour demand.
Data from Australia and New Zealand Banking Group and employment website Indeed showed job ads rose 0.4 per cent in July from June, when they fell 2.7 per cent.
Ads were down 8.9 per cent year-on-year earlier, but remained 49.8 per cent above pre-pandemic levels.
The Reserve Bank of Australia has raised interest rates by a whopping 400 basis points to 4.1 per cent, but the labour market has defied expectations of a slowdown so far, with the jobless rate nearing 50-year lows and the economy adding more jobs than expected.
“The series has fallen 2.1 per cent over the past three months, suggesting the July lift is likely to be a blip,” said economists at ANZ.
“There are other signs labour market momentum is starting to slow as the RBA’s 400bp of hikes flow through to economic activity… this suggests we’ll see a gradual cooling of the labour market from its very strong starting position.”
Markets suspect the cash rate is nearing its peak, with futures pricing in an even chance of a further rate hike to 4.35 per cent in December. A majority of economists polled by Reuters expect the RBA could deliver the last hike in the fourth quarter.
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