Fed and options expiry in focus

• Ethereum price drifted downwards as demand for the coin waned.

• Focus shifts to the upcoming Fed interest rate decision.

• Ethereum will have options expiry on Friday.

Ethereum price retreated to the lowest level since July 7th as demand for cryptocurrencies cooled. The coin slipped to $1,847, which was lower than this month’s high of $2,025. It remains ~15% below the year-to-date high, meaning it has moved into a correction.

Fed and options expiry

There will be two important catalysts for Ethereum price this week. First, the coin will react to the latest interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve. The committee will start its two-day meeting on Tuesday and then deliver its decision on Wednesday. 

The meeting comes at an important time for the American economy. All signs show that the economic growth is slowing. Data published on Monday revealed that the manufacturing PMI number rose to 49 while the services PMI fell to 52.4. While the manufacturing PMI rose, it remains below 50, signaling that the sector is contracting.

Meanwhile, the most recent data revealed that the country’s inflation dropped to 3.0% in June this year. It has dropped from a pandemic high of 9.1% and the downward trend continues. Therefore, there is a likelihood that prices will drop to the Fed’s target of 2.0% even without further rate hikes. 

Economists expect the Fed will raise interest rates by 0.25% in this meeting and then point to a long pause. Further interest rate hikes will likely lead to a strong deterioration of the American economy, commonly known as a hard landing.

The other important catalyst for Ethereum price will be the upcoming options expiry. Data compiled by Coinglass shows that there are now over 2,206,619 ETH calls and 755,222 puts in the options market. Historically, Ethereum tends to show some volatility ahead of options expiry.

Ethereum price prediction

The daily chart shows that ETH price has come under pressure in the past few days. It has moved below the important resistance level at $2,025, the highest point on July 14th. This resistance was also the upper side of the ascending channel shown in black. 

Ethereum also moved slightly below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages. Therefore, the coin will likely continue falling as sellers target the next support level at $1,800. A move above the resistance point at $1,900 will invalidate the bearish view.

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